It’s been a rough month for all us degenerates out there. With all major American sports cancelled for the foreseeable future, we’ve had to find other ways to occupy ourselves. But with Monday’s High Holiday in the rear-view, and the end of Pornhub Premium fast approaching, we feel the urge to return to our most primal endeavor: betting on sports outcomes we realistically know absolutely nothing about. Thankfully, the 2020 NFL draft provides the perfect opportunity to do just that and reconnect with our truest form of degeneracy. So without further ado, I present to you my prop bet LOCKS for Thursday night’s draft (based on an intense 45 minutes of internet research):
Note: All odds come from Caesar’s Sportsbook
Additional Note: If you don't understand sports odds, fuck you, but also here's an extensive guide on How to Gamble on Sports
1. Offensive lineman as 1st player selected by NY Jets (-120)
I agree that WR is a sexier pick here, and given the potential of CeeDee Lamb and/or Jerry Jeudy (more on him later) still being available, it would be nice to see what Sam Darnold could do with a legit #1 receiver (apologies to Robby Anderson). But this is the Jets were talking about. They’d much rather give fans something to bitch about than actually attempting to field a somewhat exciting football team. Additionally, recent draft murmurs have the Jets focusing on O-Line at #11 and there is a bevy of talented tackles expected to be available in the 6-15 range.
2. Over 4.0 Quarterbacks to be drafted in the 1st round (-125)
I’m willing to admit that this is a bit of a chicken shit bet, but hey, free money is free money. We all know Burrow, Herbert, and Tua are top 10 picks, and based on the success of guys like Carson Wentz and Josh Allen coupled with the teams that need QB’s, Jordan Love’s not gonna fall out of the 1st round. That leaves you at worst pushing and getting your money back. Of the guy’s that could go next, I think Jalen Hurts has a decent chance to go 1st round. I see him as a poor man’s Lamar Jackson, being able to thrive in a simplified, college style offense that lets him showcase his running while giving him quick and easy reads in the passing game, and he’s been connected with teams picking in the late 1st round like the Patriots and Packers. Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason could also get scooped up late in the 1st round.
3. Isaiah Simmons to be selected in the top 5 (+210)
6 ft. 4, 238 lbs., 4.39 40-yard dash. Enough said. Seriously though, Simmons is a god damn physical freak, with the stats to back up his insane measurables. The guy can play all over the defense (came into the 2017-2018 season as a safety) and can immediately plug up whatever other issues a team may have on that side of the ball. While all the buzz is around the QB’s at the top of the draft, I think Simmons is too transcendent a talent to let slip out of the top 5. You simply can't teach an athlete the athleticism, speed, and reflexes Simmons possesses, and I can see him becoming a generational talent on the right team. I think he could do great things in Matt Patricia’s system, or be another waste of a star with Saquon on the Giants at #4. It would also be a consolation if he fell to #6 and we got to see him and Derwin James fly around the same defense.
4. Jerry Jeudy 1st Wide Receiver Drafted (+105)
This is essentially a two-man race between Lamb and Jeudy. While Lamb has gotten a lot more buzz in recent weeks, I think Jeudy is still the more complete receiver. Watching his highlights, I don’t think there’s any doubt that this guy is a WR1 from day 1 in the NFL. While CeeDee certainly projects to be a similar type of player, his game seems to need a little more polish before he comes into his own. The Jaguars look like a prime candidate to take a receiver at #9 to line up next to emerging star DJ Chark, and I see Jeudy as a perfect fit.
Enough of these pussy ass, slightly favorited lines. It's been weeks since I've been able to lay down some juice on an 8 team 4-sport parlay and I'm itching for some value bets that I can earn some serious keesh on.
5. FOR GEEKS: Exact Order of 1st Three Players: Burrow, Tagovailoa, Young (+1500)
If you’re looking for a fun bet to throw some money away on, this bets for you. It would be a VERY Redskins thing to do to trade down from #2 with some team that fell in love with Tua and don’t think he’ll be around after the first few picks. After that, I think the Lions wouldn’t let Chase Young slip past 3, or another team could trade up to nab him. Another fun 1st three picks prop is Burrow, Young, and Simmons at +1100.
Bonus Pick: Baltimore Ravens to Win the Super Bowl (+800)
This is one of the juicier futures I’ve seen in a long time, especially for a team that was at +225 to win the Super Bowl going into last year’s playoffs, and could very easily be more talented this year. First, for anyone who thinks that teams will start to figure out how to stop Lamar Jackson: There is no stopping this god damn stud. This man is YOUNGER than Joe Burrow, and seeing the jump he made in just his second season, you have to have shit for brains to think he won’t be at least as good next year. While the team lost Marshall Yanda to retirement, they keep most of their other key contributors including Matthew Judon, traded for Calais Campbell as a result of recent "what-the-fuck" moments from the Jacksonville Jaguars, and added some offensive line help in free agency. Additionally, they have a 1st, two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks and two 4th round picks. They have the flexibility to move up or down however they want, and have shown a great track record in recent drafts of identifying guys who can contribute immediately (see Lamar, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, Marlon Humphrey, etc.) If they improve in the front 7 on defense, I don’t see how this team doesn’t get to at least the AFC Championship. If that’s not enough to convince you, then consider the new Madden curse Pat Mahomes started: Win the MVP the year before, get the Madden cover, and win Super Bowl MVP the next year.
PS. Before you decide to shit on these picks, consider the amount of money you’ve already paid your bookie this month betting on E-sports and Belarusian table tennis. Thank you.
Look out for my next LOCKS as soon as my bookie gives me more credit,