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March Madness 2022 | Betting Guide

Updated: Jan 31, 2023

I ended up losing money last year. Fluke year. I will say this though. My first thought after I made my bracket on Sunday:


"I think I just made the perfect bracket."

To all those who take that as a sign to fade these picks, bad idea. I wish you the worst of luck and have included a picture of me from after the tournament ends below.


 

WEST REGION

(via WSJ)


Boise State (8) over Memphis (9)


I was impressed with Memphis making it to the AAC championship game, with a solid win over a good SMU team in the semis. However, I was more impressed with Boise State holding a very good SDSU team to 52 and claiming the Mountain West Championship. As someone who is high on SDSU, I watched that game expecting to see a relatively easy win for them. Instead, I found a team that I think has some potential to make a run (but unfortunately has Gonzaga in the second round). Akot is an interesting matchup for anyone as a 6’8” guard, and this team can get scoring from pretty much anyone who steps on the court. They play great defense, and if they can get some shots to fall at the right time, they could make some noise.


Boise State +2.5, +125


**SECOND BIGGEST UPSET PICK OF THE FIRST ROUND**


Montana State(14) over Texas Tech(3)

I am not going to lie to you and tell you I have been watching Montana State play all year. I have seen them play two total basketball games and had never heard of them before that. Texas Tech is very good. They could easily make a deep run in the tournament. This pick is pure madness, in March.


Montana State is led by a 5’8” senior point guard by the name of Xavier Bishop. I will link his highlights below, but he just gives off those “14 seed point guard goes for 30 in the first round” vibes. He doesn’t do it alone, though. This is a well-rounded team with scorers at every position, and they are going to need them. Bishop goes for 34, Texas Tech has a bad day, and Montana State moves on.


Montana State +15, +850

Notre Dame(11) over Bama(6)


I am writing this before Notre Dame actually wins the play-in game, so you will not see this if Rutgers wins. I like what I have seen out of Notre Dame towards the end of the season and like that they will have a play-in game before Bama. This will give them a chance to get the nerves out and hit a struggling Bama team early, hopefully building up a lead that they can hold onto for the win.


*Update*

Just came back after that absurd game. Originally had them losing next round to Montana State. Just changed to ND to the sweet 16 as my last change to my bracket. The perfect bracket is now complete.


Notre Dame Spread, ML, Advance to Sweet 16

 

EAST REGION

UNC(8) over Marquette(9)


I was surprised that UNC couldn’t pull out the ACC championship vs VT, but I saw enough from them throughout that tournament to trust them in March once again. The way they showed up against Duke in a very impressive 94-81 win was all I needed. When things are going well, this starting 5 led by Armando Bacot can compete with anyone in the country. Brady Manek is a guy that can get hot in March to stretch the floor for them, and their two young guards, RJ Davis and Caleb Love showed some real potential over the last few weeks. Their only weakness is their bench, as they rely heavily on that starting 5. This may hurt them deeper in the tournament, but I have this team making a run to the Sweet 16.


UNC -3.5, to beat Baylor in the second round


Indiana(12) over Saint Mary’s(5)


I had to wait until Tuesday night to write this one because I liked the potential in both Indiana and Wyoming to get a first-round win over Saint Mary’s. Saint Mary’s is a good team, with a very impressive win over Gonzaga, but Indiana looked solid in their First Four game. Trayce Jackson-Davis is an absolute force on both the offensive and defensive end, and could very well win the game for them by himself. To go along with him, they have solid guard play and a tough defense.


The biggest plus for them that I saw in their First Four game was the play of freshman forward Jordan Geronimo. Averaging 3.9 points this year, he played 19 minutes, scored 15, and had 7 boards. On top of that, he had two very impressive putback dunks and an absolutely absurd block. He is an incredible athlete, and with an expected boost in his minutes going forward, could be the spark this team needs to go along with Jackson-Davis. Unfortunately for them, they have to play UCLA in the second round.


Indiana Spread and ML

Texas(6) over VT(11)


Not often that you would have to include a 6 seed winning over an 11 seed as a notable pick, but VT has made some serious noise after their impressive ACC title. While I have been a VT fan in the past, there is no Justin Robinson on this team. They are a popular pick for an 11-6 upset, but Texas will be too much for them.


Also, Jordan Spieth is a Texas fan and I saw an interview where he said they would win. Lock it in.


Texas -1, ML


San Francisco(10) over Murray State(7)


Not much reasoning here. I may have watched a San Francisco game at some point this year at midnight on a random Saturday, scrambling to recover some winnings in a last-ditch effort, but I honestly don’t even know. I have heard very good things about Murray State, but San Francisco it is.


San Fran + 1, ML

 

SOUTH REGION


**BIGGEST UPSET PICK**


Wright State(16) over Arizona(1)


Arizona is really good. I am not going to try and reason why this will happen. Tanner Holden to the moon (he wears grinch Kobe 6s, the greatest basketball shoe ever made).


Wright State spread, ML, advance to elite 8(potential greatest pick ever, also potential for the worst pick ever)

TCU(9) over Seton Hall(8)


TCU is serious this year. Guard Mike Miles leads the way for them, averaging a very solid 15 a game. Similar to Xavier Bishop, this guy gives off crazy March Madness vibes. If he gets hot and gets some help from his supporting cast, he could give Arizona(or maybe Wright State????) some problems in the second round.


TCU -1, ML

UAB(12) over Houston(5)


I honestly hated this pick at first, but I needed to pick a 12-5 upset if I was going to have a chance at a perfect bracket. I have not watched a single second of UAB playing basketball, and I actually really like Houston after they easily secured the AAC Championship. If you didn’t see, UAB was a popular pick amongst Barstool gamblers and got some social media attention for it. Led by Jelly Fam member Jordan Walker, a New York kid, this team seems to have some serious confidence heading into the tournament. I will say, I love teams that are guard-heavy, and UAB is certainly that with all three of their top scorers at the guard position.


The more I watched highlights of Jordan Walker play, the more I was convinced he was about to take UAB on an incredible March Madness run. Please see the link below. "I'm The Fucking One" - Jordan Walker. If there was a way to logically predict a 12 seed making a deep run, they wouldn’t be a 12 seed.


In addition, if you were here last year, you were exposed to the undeniable success of the green jersey play. In the last 1 season, 100% of national championships have had green jerseys. Due to the overwhelming mathematical support, this suggests that correlation does in fact imply causation in the case of NCAA basketball teams with green jerseys. UAB gets 1 of 2 green jersey plays.


UAB +8.5, +300, Advance to the sweet 16


 

MIDWEST REGION

SDSU(8) over Creighton(9)


I have seen Creighton as a popular pick here, but I could not love SDSU more. I will admit that I was disappointed by their one-point loss to Boise State in the conference championship, but as I said earlier, I think that was more of Boise State being good then SDSU being bad. With solid wins over Saint Mary’s and Colorado State, this team is led by a very good senior point guard, Matt Bradley. If you can’t tell by now, I like teams that are led by senior point guards who can score. Bradley was the only player over 10 ppg for them this year, averaging 17 a game to go along with 5 boards and 2.5 assists. If they are going to make the run I think they will, this smooooooth lefty will have to carry them.


SDSU -2.5, advance to the elite 8

National Championship:

UCLA(4) over Nova(2)


As soon as Jalen Suggs banked in that half-courter to send UCLA home last year, I decided that they were winning the natty this year. To start, Johnny Juzang might go down as one of the greatest March Madness players ever after what he does this year to follow up last year’s campaign. He is absolutely un-guardable in the month of March. On top of that, every single player who saw any time during last year's tournament is back this year. Juzang, Jaquez, Campbell, Bernard, and Riley are very comfortable being on the court with one another. The experience they have gained over the last few years, along with the experience in high-pressure games, will help them to pull this championship out. This team has had one goal in mind all year, and I expect to see a different team when this tournament starts then we have seen all year so far.


On top of all that, they claim the sneakiest of green jersey plays. But they aren’t green, you say? Blue + Yellow = Green. Just ask the Rams. Science.


I have gone back and forth with Nova all year. Some games I am convinced they will walk to the Final Four, while other games I think they might get bounced in the first round. Collin Gilespie is a senior point guard more than capable of leading a team on a deep run, and he has support all around him. They are well-coached with a history of making noise in this tournament, and I just hope we get the good version of Villanova from this year

BETTING GUIDE


Spread Picks:


Boise State +2.5

Montana State + 15

UNC – 3.5

Texas -1

San Fran +1

TCU -1

UAB +8.5

SDSU -2.5


Money Line:


Boise State +125

Montana State +850

UAB + 300


Locks of the first round:


UNC -3.5

Boise State ML


Day 1 Lock Parlay:+550

  • Boise State +125

  • UNC -170

  • SDSU -135

Day 2 Lock Parlay: +790

  • Wright State +21.5

  • Texas -115

  • Wisco -360

  • TCU -105

Fun Tournament Bets:


Johnny Juzang Most Outstanding Player +3500

UCLA vs Nova final +13,000

Wright State to make the sweet 16 +4000

UCLA champs +180


Final Four Picks:


Wisco, UCLA, Gonzaga, Nova

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