Rays v Astros, 5:07 pm
(Image via Getty)
Similar to the Braves, the Rays will start John Curtiss in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Rays. The Astros surprisingly will not throw Framer Valdez but instead have Luis Garcia scheduled. Garcia has exactly one MLB start and has thrown 12.1 Innings in the MLB, we should expect Valdez in relief if things start to go south for him. Astros stranded 31 men on base in the first three games but only left four on in Game 4, probably one of the biggest reasons they lost the first three and won the last. Both of these lineups have scrappy players throughout, with a healthy dose of power and contact on either side. Arozarena has been nothing short of phenomenal and Jose Altuve appears to be hitting as well as he did when he was getting the pitch from a garbage can in the dugout (will never get old). Unlike the Dodgers game, I can definitely see this score fly well above the total, but that’s not all I want to attack in terms of betting in this one. I think the Rays get to Garcia early, and if they do Valdez will come in early and have to go at least 5 innings. I’ll take a half unit on each Rays team total First Five innings (F5) o2.5, Rays team total o4.5, and full game o8.5. Finally to win 1 unit on Rays ML (-140).
Dodgers v Braves, 8:08 PM
Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to be taking the mound again for the Dodgers tonight for Game 4 of the NLCS. He was supposed to go in Game 2 but was scratched due to back spasms. Braves throw Bryse Wilson who hasn’t pitched in a game since September 27th when he went three innings versus the Red Sox where he let up five hits with two walks and one earned run. He’s likely to be an opener for the Braves and they will turn to their bullpen early in an attempt to give the Dodgers batters a different look each time around the lineup. The Rays really invented the idea of an opener going a few innings at most and it seems like it works best when good bullpens are fresh. The Dodgers bullpen has looked a little shaky this postseason, but they should be able to use some of their better arms today as they didn’t need them blowing out the Braves yesterday. In a similar fashion, the Braves seemingly chalked up Wednesday’s game to a loss after letting up 11 RUNS IN THE 1st😲 and will have their better bullpen arms available.
I know how high scoring this whole MLB postseason has been, but I think this a game where you plug your nose and take the under. I also want to add that fans are in the ballpark for the first time this season in the AL and NL championship series; and more fans/crowd noise doesn’t usually benefit batters. The Braves pen is solid and available versus playoff Kershaw (even if he might not be 100%). The forecast also looks like we could see some wind coming in from center field if they keep the dome open. I’ll probably wait to place my bet as I expect some public bets to come in on the over, while also monitoring Kershaw’s status and the weather in Arlington, TX. I'll take the u9 runs FT and u4.5 F5 in this one and will sprinkle on a No Run First Inning prop bet.
BONUS: Without an NFL Thursday night game tonight, the only football on will be a NCAAF game between Georgia State and Arkansas State. If you’re looking for some football to bet tonight, I’d recommend taking Georgia State +3.5 and maybe taking a look at the lofty total of 72 to go under.
Look out for another PRTY Favors this weekend with a loaded NFL Sunday seeing nine 1 PM games