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PRTY Favors🎰: NFL Sundays Are Back!

(Image via NBC)

Unlike the NBA and NHL who were fortunate enough to have completed a good portion of their regular seasons before suspending games due to COVID, the NFL will begin its season with a lot of question marks down the road. Because of the situation hockey and basketball were in, they managed to use a bubble system to keep players healthy. NFL teams will have strict rules about breaking “quarantine” but will still travel all over the country. One reason to be optimistic that this could work is that MLB has been doing just that and has shown some very promising numbers in terms of infection rate recently. However, it’s still not that simple. First off NFL teams are way bigger, and beyond that, if games get canceled it’s going to be very difficult figuring out how to reschedule (unlike the MLB as they can add in double-headers). Regardless of all the uncertainty I’m gonna do my best to appreciate the fact that football is officially back😁. I’ll be detailing a few of my favorite games on Sunday’s slate here as well as throwing a few betting picks out there.

1:00 pm:

Colts (-8) @ Jaguars

I love the Colts here. It’s not often a home team gets a line over 7 points in Week 1, especially when the favorite didn’t even post a .500 record the year before. That should tell you something. The Jags only covered the spread in two of their final eight games of the 2019 season, all 8 times as an underdog. The Jags got rid of almost every asset they had; only 5 of last years 22 starters remain on the roster. On the flip side, the Colts made moves this offseason in hopes that their playoff hopes don’t get blown up late down the stretch again this year. They added Phillip Rivers to lead their offense in a step up from Brissett who was their signal-caller last year. The Colts also added D-linemen DeForest Buckner who tallied 19.5 total sacks for the 49ers in the last 2 seasons. The Colts will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which will allow the Colts to run all over the Jags defense and will force Minshew to get the ball out fast. The Jags D will have issues beyond the run game though, they have 4-rookie corners in their six-man rotation at CB and only one player in the entire secondary who has more than one season as an NFL starter under their belt. I strongly believe this line would be closer to 10/10.5 if we had some form of a preseason. A lot of people think the Jaguars might tank this season for the 1st overall pick, but it seems like Vegas isn’t willing to make that bet quite yet. Well, guess what? I am. To me, this game smells exactly like that Miami vs Ravens game in Week 1 of 2019. People thought they might tank but Vegas gave them +7 as the home team (very comparable to this game line considering fans were in attendance in Miami). If you don’t remember what happened, Baltimore went up 42-10 in the first half before coasting to a 59-10 victory. I’m not sure it’s that kind of carnage again, but I really wouldn’t be that surprised.

Jets @ Bills (-6.5, O/U 39.5)

The Jets lost C.J. Mosley (opted out) and Jamal Adams (traded to Seahawks) this offseason, two of the biggest pieces in their defense. The Jets also have 4 new offensive linemen and while there isn’t necessarily a lack of talent, I have some questions about an almost entirely new group considering how much less practice these teams have had this offseason. The rookie WR Denzel Mims will not suit up on Sunday and combining that with Robby Anderson’s departure from NY, Breshad Perriman becomes the team's WR1 for this game. That’s not good. That being said, I don’t take it lightly to bet against Gregg Williams. He runs the Jets defense extremely well in my opinion and his aggressive play-style can force inexperienced quarterbacks to make a lot of mistakes. The question becomes is Josh Allen experienced enough to not make those mistakes? I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer to that question yet, but I would lean towards “he’s experienced enough” coming into his 3rd NFL season. You also have to consider the possibility of the Jets tanking considering the Jamal Adams trade which they made to stockpile draft picks. Buffalo returned most of its players from last year while adding Stefon Diggs. Josh Norman also won’t suit up for Buffalo on Sunday due to injury but based on the Jets available wide-outs, I don’t really see that as a problem. I got the Bills winning this game and I’m not sure I see the Jets scoring more than 14 points.

Bears @ Lions (-2.5, O/U 42.5)

First of all, I wanna say how much I love the Bears move to sign Robert Quinn. Teams ended up keying Khalil Mack as he’s probably the most talented defender in the NFL, which ended up hurting Chicago’s defensive game plan. Now, Quinn adds an extra element and you have to be aware of where both of those guys are on the field as an opposing offense. The Lions also made much-needed changes to their defense, hiring defensive coordinator Cory Undlin and drafting Jeffrey Okudah 3rd overall to replace Darius Slay who they traded to Philly in March. I also just don’t understand how the Lions can be that good on defense. Patricia did wonders with the Patriots defense in his many years there, you would think he might step in and take a bigger role in designing the gameplan on D. Regardless, I don’t see Chicago doing much on offense. Trubisky still lacks the confidence of a third-year quarterback and I have zero faith in him when the lights get bright. With the Bears bringing in Nick Foles from the Jags he is clearly on the hot seat. Nagy came out and said he’s not itching to make a change under center, but he definitely didn’t say he’s not open to it. Mitch won’t get yanked in this first game, but I think the pressure gets to him and he falls apart. On the other side, the Lions have a seemingly good offense when Stafford is healthy, and the disparity in the offense's ability with him on and off the field was obvious last year. That being said Golladay is expected to miss this game and the Bears defense can capitalize on that. I’m gonna stay away from a side in this one, although I will say if you see a +6 or better on lions or +13 or better on the bears live in the first half I would take it. Instead, I’m gonna make a play on the under.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Saints

I’ll be the first to admit this play is a little more of a gut call. First of all the NFL is pumping in some crowd noise but according to Alvin Kamara its a joke and is nowhere near as loud as the fans the Saints normally enjoy. Tom Brady with Gronk, a quick wide receiver who’s at his best running 5-10 yard routes (Godwin), and a myriad of running backs that are all versatile in their own ways. Sound like the Patriots? It the fucking Buccaneers. Fournette/Shady/Ronald Jones is a lethal combo that will provide enough of a rushing attack to keep a little of the pressure Brady, at least enough to get the ball to Gronk and Godwin. Mike Evans is currently being considered a game-time decision but I’m not really that concerned whether he plays or not. It would be nice to draw Lattimore’s attention away from the other weapons, but beyond that, I have a lot of questions about Brady’s ability to throw the ball deep. Evans is at his best going for a jump ball 40 yards downfield, which Brady doesn’t have the physical ability nor the time in the pocket to do so. No doubt the Bucs are edged out in the secondary especially with Malcolm Jenkins joining the Saints, and that can spell trouble for two teams who like to pass. But I think if the Bucs can manage to run and pass the ball they will be able to control the game flow enough to at least cover a field goal. Gimme Bucs +3.5

Bets, 1 unit per line

- Bucs +3.5

- Bills 1H -3.5, bills -6.5

- Jets TT u16.5

- Colts 1H -4.5 , Colts alt spread -16 (+220)

- Colts -8

2 unit Teaser (+6pt)

- Eagles +0.5

- Ravens -1.5

- Colts -2

- Buffalo -1

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